(Il testo seguente è tratto integralmente dalla nota stampa inviata all’Agenzia Opinione) –
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Sotto il link al commento e in allegato il Global Economic Outlook Report aggiornato a Marzo 2023, pubblicato venerdì in serata da Fitch.
A pagina 16 il focus Paese sull’Italia.
Global Growth Outlook Improves, but Rate Hike Impact Still Ahead
Fitch Ratings-London-10 March 2023: Global growth prospects for 2023 have improved significantly since December, says Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report, but the impacts of rate hikes on the real economy still lie ahead and are likely to push the US economy into recession later this year.
Italy
We have upgraded our growth forecast for Italy, owing to partial relief from the energy price shock and an improvement to the eurozone and global growth outlook. We now expect growth of 0.5% in 2023 (+0.6pp) in place of a contraction, while we have reduced our forecast for 2024 to 1.3% (-0.2pp). The government has targeted help for those energy bill payers on lower incomes who typically have a higher marginal propensity to consume, but this measure is set to end in 2Q23. Tighter fiscal policy will also weigh on growth in 2024.
The economy contracted by 0.1% in 4Q22, featuring a sharp fall in consumption (-1.6%) and drawdown of inventories, while net trade made an unusually large positive contribution. We think that up to one-third of the fall in consumption was caused by lower household energy usage, attributable to mild weather and energy-saving efforts. We expect a further mild economic contraction in 1Q22.
Italy has experienced a strong recovery in investment since the pandemic, driven by household investment; real investment in 4Q22 was 12% above its 2019 level, although construction investment growth started to falter in 2Q22. As the government phases out the superbonus scheme of tax breaks for home improvement, we would expect investment growth to slow but NextGenerationEU (NGEU) investment will absorb some of the slack. NGEU grants and loans to be disbursed by 2026 represent more than 10% of Italian GDP.
Higher interest rates will have a lesser impact on Italy than in some eurozone countries. The economy has experienced more muted property price gains and has lower household debt/GDP than the eurozone average. Households’ uptake of variable-rate mortgages has leapt since 2021 to form a majority of originations, but the outstanding stock is mainly at fixed rates. The household savings rate remains relatively high. The rate of inflation fell to 9.9% in February, and the contribution of household energy is back at mid- 2022 levels after surging in 4Q22. We expect inflation to decelerate gradually in 2023, with core inflation starting to fall in April. Unemployment continued to decline, reaching a 13-year low in 4Q22, while employment rose 1.5% yoy in December. The monthly unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in January, however, and we expect a further rise as growth slips below trend in 2023. The labour market is less tight than in other large economies (with wide regional variations) and wage dynamics are also more restrained.
