GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK * REPORT FOR Q1: « 2023 MARKED BY RECESSION AND DISINFLATION, THE EURO-ZONE IS LIKELY TO SUFFER A DEEPER RECESSION THAN MOST ANTICIPATE» (PDF)

(Il testo seguente è tratto integralmente dalla nota stampa inviata all’Agenzia Opinione) –
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Euro-zone

The euro-zone is likely to suffer a deeper recession than most anticipate. Nevertheless, we expect core inflation to remain above 2% in the coming years so we forecast the ECB to raise rates further next year and wait until 2024 to bring them back down.

 

US

We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the US economy into a mild recession this year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rise in the unemployment rate, we expect very sharp falls in inflation to convince the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of 2023.

 

China

The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy – the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But even as these efforts start to bear fruit, the economy will be buffeted by weaker global demand for China’s exports.

 

Latin America

The region’s central banks should be among the first to cut rates from particularly high levels.

 

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